A plan to reopen St. Lawrence, Jefferson and Franklin counties immediately. Without adequate testing, the requirements of having to remain at home and engage in social distancing are the strongest means to slow the spread of COVID-19.

These PAUSE practices work because it limits contact between people. With adherence to these practices we help to avoid overwhelming our health care system. The North Country is the ideal location to start the process of re-opening of New York in phases.

The North County has a population of roughly 280,000 spread out over 6,375 square miles. This extremely low density means that the North Country is already built for PAUSE practices. The questions and answers below outline the plan.

1. Won’t reopening result in our health care system in the North Country being overwhelmed?

No, we have “raised the bar.” First, with the entire State shut down, we have effectively flattened the curve. However, we have also “raised the bar” on the deliver of health care services. If we had an increase in the number of cases in the North Country, the State could deploy health care services to address the needs. Second, we would reopen for 2 weeks initially and then reassess the conditions. We were already 2 weeks behind the curve last time and rural areas were not as badly impacted due to low density.

2. What would an increase in cases in the North Country look like?

Looking at the impact on rural areas around the US and the world, and given the extremely low density of the North Country, any increase could be managed, given the fact that the State has “raised the bar” for delivering health care services.

3. So, opening back up would mean back to normal?

No, as business should take steps to keep density low and take precautions. For instances, in restaurants, capacity should be reduced by limiting the number of tables, patrons’ temperature should be checked before entering, and plates, glasses and silverware would only be brough out when the meal is served. Restaurants in the North Country are nothing like restaurants in NYC. There would not be an explosive growth of new infections because of North Country business reopening. It is not physically possible given the low density.

4. Should these precautions be mandated?

No, not for the North County, they should just be recommendations to start with. For larger urban areas, like Buffalo, Rochester and Syracuse, if they reopen, such measures should be mandatory, but for the North Country, due to its density, mandatory measures shouldn’t be unnecessary.

5. Should we reopen schools?

For the North Country, schools are actually the one area with higher density. With faculty assisting students with proper distancing, face masks worn inside school, and cafeterias reconfigured, schools could also be reopened. All outdoor activities could resume.

6. Why these three counties and not counties in the Southern Tier or the Catskills?

Geography. The region has a natural boundary to the north and west with the St. Lawrence River and Lake Ontario. Additionally, these areas are adjacent to the Canadian border. To the south there is the Adirondack Park as a barrier. To the east and part of the southern end of Jefferson County, the neighboring communities also have extremely low density. If infections increase in the North County, it will be well contained and wouldn’t spread to the rest of the State. Bear in mind, it is highly unlikely that there would be a large spike in infections given the low density, but these additional factors strength the argument that the North Country is well suited to be reopened.

7. Why not wait?

We need hope! Reopening the North County will signal to the rest of the State that we will get through this crisis. Seeing a community rebound will help New Yorkers realize there is a light at the end of the tunnel. If infections increase, and the initial reopening is halted, then it will also help to reaffirm the need for continued vigilance and social distancing.

8. Why is this needed in the North Country?

Economy. Just as we have low density, which helps us during this crisis, it also means that any restarting of the economy will be much harder here then in other parts of the State. A business lost due to the shut down in the North County is most likely never to reopen. Unfortunately, the longer the North County stays closed, the longer and deeper the recovery will be for the area. Time and time again, after economic stress, the urban centers of New York rebound more quickly. This time, given our lower density, we can stay ahead by reopening now.

9. What if the Governor says “No way, that is not going to happen on my watch, as it is just too dangerous.”

We should remind our friends from downstate that we just as educated here in the North County, and we know our math. Social distancing has worked because it has reduced density. The North County is all about reduced density. Our numbers in the North County make reopening a possibility that does not exist in the urban centers of New York. The math speaks for itself. The entire experiment of shutting down has worked, but its purpose has been fulfilled in that it has flattened the curve and raised the bar. It is time for the Governor to put down the lock down hammer and pick up this plan to start reopening New York.

10. When can other counties in New York open?

Those counties with low density and located in areas not near urban centers could start to reopen two weeks to a month after the North County. However, for the urban centers, without adequate testing, they should not be reopened.

11. Wait, urban centers can’t reopen without adequate testing?

Opening the North County will give hope to the entire State, and that is a good first step. Unfortunately, the higher density in urban centers doesn’t allow for a clear timetable to reopen, unless we have extensive testing and/or a vaccine. If is not clear when either will be available, but it looks like it will be many months.

12. What does NOW stand for or mean?

Well the Governor has put the State on PAUSE. At this point of the crisis it is time for hope, and we need it now. The reopening gives us that hope. NOW stands for Now Open to Work. Let’s all get back to work and reopen the North Country.

Ed Russell

Former St. Lawrence County Industrial Development Agency director