To the Editor:

"The stone age did not end because the world ran out of stones, and the oil age will not end because we run out of oil” - Don Huberts (Royal Dutch Shell) 

Peak oil historically is a term used to describe the point at which existing fossil fuel reserves no longer meet demand. The idea being that oil, a finite resource, will someday inevitably run out so we better start moving on to the next thing before it does.  

Unfortunately, peak oil never really happened. The US did go through a brief production decline from the mid 80s to the early 2000s. This, combined with an ever-growing appetite for energy, lead to an increase in imports. Not because we were short on oil, but because what was left was too expensive to extract with the available technology.  

Today, thanks to extraction improvements and a generally higher cost of oil, the US is the largest producer of oil in the world. And the 4th largest exporter. Oil company production and profits are at an all-time high. What’s a world facing climate disaster to do? 

Lucky for us, technological advancement continues. Energy production via solar is now the lowest cost energy available. According to the US Energy Information Agency 96% of 2024 US electrical capacity will come from solar, battery storage, and wind. The conversion to solar is actually accelerating with 55% more solar to be added in 2024 than in 2023. Almost a quarter of new capacity in 2024 will come from batteries alone. In contrast 98% of US electricity capacity retirements in 2023 were from coal and gas plants. NY state retired its last coal plant in 2022. Nobody in the US builds coal plants anymore. Almost nobody builds gas plants either. They are simply no longer cost competitive. 

Nowadays peak oil refers to the point where, due to the energy transition, demand for fossil fuel begins its inevitable decline. It cannot come too soon. 2023 was the hottest year on record. 2014 to 2023 was the hottest decade on record. The International Energy Agency expects peak oil to happen by 2030. When it does, we are unlikely to notice. No clarion calls. No parties in the streets. More’s the pity. It will truly be something to celebrate. 

Scott Shipley
Hermon