“History never repeats itself, but it does often rhyme” – Mark Twain 

In 1973 GM, Ford and Chrysler, specializing in big, inefficient vehicles, were the largest car companies in the world. American oil production was in decline with 30% of demand imported and 83% of imports coming from the Middle East. In October of 1973 war in the Middle East cut off supply sending prices soaring 300%. The country faced an energy crisis. 

In 1975 the first CAFÉ (Corporate Average Fuel Economy) standards were enacted. US based car companies, in what is now known as their “malaise era”, struggled to produce the cleaner, more fuel-efficient cars the new conditions required. Car makers from overseas filled the void.  

Fast forward to 2023. Toyota and Volkswagen vie for largest car company status. Ford is 5th, GM 8th and Chrysler is part of Stellantis – a Dutch based company. Change and innovation are again driving the industry and we have seen some notable milestones. 

2023 was the first year US annual new EV sales surpassed 1 million. Tesla’s Model Y supplanted the Toyota Corolla as the most popular car in the world. EVs are now 15% of total annual new car sales worldwide with over 10 million sold last year. In China, the largest car market in the world, 25% of new cars are now fully electric. In Europe it's 21.6%. The US lags with 8%. The China based BYD, the largest EV maker in the world, is now also among the world’s top 10 car makers. 

The current head of Toyota recently stated his belief that EVs will only ever make up 30% of the market. GM canceled its most popular EV – The Bolt. Ford continues to scale back its EV ambitions despite increasing EV sales. Dominant legacy automakers are clearly struggling to keep up while other car companies are leaping ahead. Tesla is the #1 EV seller in the US while the South Korean based Hyundai is #2. BYD is planning its first car factory in Mexico. With an electric bus factory in California, it’s just a matter of time until BYD starts importing to the US. Failing to innovate the legacy makers are facing an historical rerun. 

Or as the iconic Yogi Berra might put it, “It's déjà vu all over again.” 

Scott Shipley
Hermon