BY JEFF CHUDZINSKINorth Country This Week

MASSENA -- Alcoa CEO Bill Oplinger has told media outlets that tariffs proposed by President Donald Trump on multiple occasions could cost the company 20,000 U.S. aluminum industry jobs, along with an additional 80,000 jobs in sectors that support it.

Oplinger made the comments in a webcast recently, noting the Pittsburgh-based Alcoa would be hit heavily if the tariffs did go into effect.

Though Trump proposed tariffs when he first entered office in January, tariffs have been delayed at the eleventh hour multiple times.

Most recently, Ontario Premier Doug Ford announced on March 11 the province would immediately implement a 25% tariff on all electric exports to the U.S.

That measure would have impacted 1.5 million Americans, including many in New York. In response, Trump issued a 50% tariff on all Canadian aluminum and steel imports.

But shortly thereafter both sides backed down, bringing the two countries back from the brink.

Trump has said on multiple occasions he would impose a flat 25% tariff on aluminum imports "without exceptions or exemptions" in a move that he said would bolster U.S. production of metals used to manufacture vehicles, cans and various other products.

But Alcoa officials are not as optimistic, saying the tariffs would have a significant impact on American jobs.

"This is bad for the aluminum industry in the U.S. It's bad for American workers," Oplinger said.

Oplinger also said the tariffs would be enough to spur U.S. firms to hire more workers and boost production, something Oplinger said would not drive the company to produce more aluminum.

Oplinger said the tariffs alone would not be enough to tempt Alcoa into restarting some of its shuttered U.S. facilities.

"It's very hard to make an investment decision, even on something like a restart, without knowing how long the tariffs will last," Oplinger said during the webcast.

Part of the concern stems from downstream jobs, also called indirect jobs, and the impact tariffs could have.

For every Canadian aluminum production job impact, 13 American indirect jobs could be impacted, officials said.

That would mean significant economic consequences in the U.S.

Alcoa officials said they are making “real time decisions based on the information available,” commenting the “deeply integrated supply chain from Canada into the United States” is a top concern at the moment.

The cost to tool up and produce more aluminum is also an issue, Alcoa officials said.

Alcoa officials said any tariffs would have “an immediate impact on pricing and supply,” in turn affecting costs for consumers.

In the case of aluminum goods, like soda cans, those costs would be passed directly to the customer.

Alcoa officials have signaled support for supporting and growing manufacturing domestically, just not at the expense of the consumer.

Alcoa in particular have said they hope to continue to support growth efforts, bringing more good paying manufacturing jobs to the U.S.

But to make a large investment that would be billions of dollars while not seeing a return on investment for 10 to 15 years is difficult.

Alcoa officials have said it was their belief that competitively priced energy is the way to foster growth, including job creation.

In many cases, such operations have been established in areas with the most affordable power available given the creation of primary aluminum is a very energy intensive business, Alcoa officials said.

One bright spot to come from the bleak webcast was that Alcoa would consider boosting U.S. output if it had a cheap supply of power, something Massena has in spades.

Alcoa currently operates a plant in Massena, the oldest continually operating smelter in the world.

"Built in 1902, Massena Operations has a rich history of dedicated employees producing high-quality aluminum for the transportation, construction, defense and food industries. The plant has provided for families, served as a strategic partner to defense and aerospace industries and helped humankind explore the surface of the moon," Alcoa said on their website.

Another key issue hitting the sector right now is a supply issue, with primary aluminum in short supply for the current demand.

Alcoa officials have said replacement materials will play a key role in that, noting the demand curve has shown that a gap in the market exists. Companies from Europe, the Middle East, Asia and Canada as well typically fill that void, however tariffs could greatly impact that supply.

An economic impact study conducted prior to the 120th anniversary of the facility showed that the site's approximately 450 employees make a significant impact statewide in New York, with direct, indirect and induced effects contributing to more than $150 million in payroll earnings, according to Alcoa.

But with the threat of tariffs looming and talk of lost jobs coming to the forefront, many are left to wonder what facilities would be impacted first.

According to documents obtained by North Country This Week, St. Lawrence County exports $267 million in goods to Canada annually, $75 million of which is aluminum. That represents the largest share of exports, followed closely by nonferrous metal products, which represents $64 million.

Iron, steel and ferroalloys make up $49 million, while metal ores account for $24 million and pulp, paperboard and mill products round out the top-5 with $16 million.

St. Lawrence County also exports $35 million in services to Canada annually, with transport making up $20 million.

As for goods exports by industry, minerals and metals account for $221 million total, or 83% of all exports from the county.

Those figures have steadily risen since 2017, when total exports came in at $170, eventually rising to $301 million in 2022.

A total of 700 individuals are employed at the 19 Canadian-owned businesses operating in St. Lawrence County, with an additional 1,450 jobs that depend on goods and services exports to Canada.

Among the top Canadian-owned businesses operating in St. Lawrence County include Braebon Medical Corporation, Brookfield Properties, Canarm Ltd., Hewitt Environmental, JSI Telecom, Jmpower Aggregates, Liberty Utilities, Lower Gravelle Assoc., Marimac-Massena and Massena Terminal Railroad.

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