BY ANDY GARDNER
North Country This Week

CANTON -- A discussion among county legislators and the public health director of strategies to fight novel coronavirus kept returning to one concept - social distancing.

In conjunction with that, officials shared some sobering estimates of the potential impact of the coronavirus, and the respiratory disease it causes, COVID-19.

"The biggest piece is now we're moving from the containment stage to the mitigation stage, and that's part of the social distancing. How do we keep our distance? How do we reschedule all the things we do in person. All the meetings, work practices ... staying home so you're not going out to eat," said Public Health Director Dana McGuire.

Earlier the same day, Gov. Andrew Cuomo ordered all restaurants, bars, movie theaters, gyms and casinos to close, and put a restriction on social gatherings of 50 people or more. Schools and colleges have also been closed and students sent home.

The same day, President Donald Trump announced that new guidance from the Centers for Disease Control recommends people do not congregate in groups of 10 or more.

During the discussion at the Monday, March 16 Services Committee meeting, Legislator David Haggard, D-Potsdam, pointed to projections given out earlier on Monday, March 16 from Gov. Cuomo saying that up to 40% of New Yorkers could possibly be affected by novel coronavirus.

There are now a little over 100,000 people living in St. Lawrence County, since college students have been sent back home. That means 40,000 people in this county alone could catch the disease, if serious preventative measures are not taken.

McGuire said of the people who catch the disease, 80% of cases will be minor and the other 20% will probably require "some form of hospitalization."

So, if 40% of people in St. Lawrence County were to contract COVID-19, that means about 8,000 people in the county may require hospitalization, far more than the number of hospital beds.

"They say about, I think it's 80% of cases are going to be minor. That's the problem. They might not know it... and they're out and about and not realize it, and not everyone is going to be impacted in the same way," McGuire said.

The death rates for COVID-19 are around 1 to 3%, she said. Calculated at the 40% infection rate, that means about 400 to 1,200 St. Lawrence County residents may die.

"It is simply a math problem, and we will overwhelm our healthcare system. We don't have the access we need. We have to go with what we have (social distancing). There is no vaccine," Haggard said.

McGuire noted that although there have been far more influenza deaths and infections in the United States, coronavirus is still spreading and is much more deadly. She said because of the flu vaccine, the death rate for that disease is one-tenth of 1%.

Locally, hospitals are working toward being able to do their own COVID-19 tests, rather than having to send them out to a lab. McGuire said that takes three to six days.

"What we don't have here is the capability to do a general screening for the entire public," McGuire said, which is part of the rationale for social distancing and self-quarantine. "For how we're submitted tests currently, we couldn't just decide to screen everyone and send them to the current labs we have, because that would just overwhelm."

Matt Denner, St. Lawrence County Emergency Services director, said they are having trouble finding personal protective equipment, like face shields, to give to first responders such as EMTs, firefighters and police officers.

"We're getting about an eighth of what they request," he said. He added that other surrounding counties are having similar luck, probably because the virus hasn't hit here yet. As of the Services Committee meeting, there had been no confirmed COVID-19 cases in St. Lawrence County.

"Most of the stuff is made in China, so it's not readily available to us. What is available has to be rationed out," said Legislator Rita Curran, R-Massena.

She also urged her constituents to abide by social distancing.

"Social distancing, having people right not on top of each other might have us not have [a bad outbreak] here in this county," she said.