The Marine Chamber of Commerce says shippers are concerned that raising water outflow levels on the St. Lawrence Seaway any higher could cost American and Canadian economies over $1 billion due to delays and possible stoppages in ship traffic.

Attempts to control flooding on the St. Lawrence River and Lake Ontario have raised outflow from the Moses Saunders power dam near Massena to unprecedented levels in recent weeks.

The Ottawa-based Chamber of Marine Commerce (CMC) “supports the International Lake Ontario-St. Lawrence River Board’s decision Friday to continue flow rates from the Moses-Saunders dam at 10,400 cubic meters per second (CMS),” a statement from them Wednesday said.

But the chamber says the high levels are already affecting the flow of traffic on the inland water route and raising the flow any higher will compound delays.

“Raising water outflows further to unsafe levels would halt navigation on the St. Lawrence Seaway and disrupt the supply of vital materials and products to industries and towns. This would cause significant harm to other parts of the economy and put jobs at risk,” CMC President Bruce Burrows said.

The St. Lawrence Seaway is “a vital trade artery for both raw materials and global exports for North American industries, including grain, manufacturing, steel, construction, mining and energy sectors,” the CMC statement said.

“We are sensitive to the flood damage being done to homeowners. Given the plight of riparians, sustaining flow rates at these very high 10,400 CMS rates is the best compromise solution to deliver relief for Lake Ontario residents while maintaining safe, commercial navigation and supply to North American consumers,” Burrows said.

The International Lake Ontario-St. Lawrence River Board is operating under Plan 2014, a revision to an earlier plan to attempt to control water levels on that part of the Seaway. In spite of the plan’s implementation, flooding along the lake and river in 2017 and again this year resulted in significant damage to shoreline properties.

Maintaining the 10,400 CMS outflow, an attempt to lower the water levels upstream of Massena, results in higher cost to the economy, the press statement said, with an estimated (USD) $2.3 to $3 million in business revenues lost for every day it’s in place due to delays for all ship transits through the Seaway.

“The chamber’s ship operators are following all of the new speed restrictions and additional mitigation measures developed by the Seaway to ensure the highest safety standards to accommodate these outflows of water,” the CMC statement said, “The Chamber’s operations group has had positive feedback thus far from ship captains that current water conditions are safe.”

“Raising water flows beyond 10,400 CMS would have significantly more severe economic repercussions,” the CMS said.

The River Board has circulated a number of scenarios to stakeholders for feedback which would result in stop and go scenarios or sustained closure of the St. Lawrence Seaway to navigation, CMC said. Their analysis indicates these would result in an estimated (USD) $759 million to $1.3 billion in business revenue losses to the Canadian and U.S. economies depending on the scenario.

If the flow reaches unsafe levels, traffic on the Seaway could come to a halt, CMS said.

“Lost time cannot be made up later in the season. There is a reduced amount of cargo that can be transported,” the CMC statement said.

In the United States, stop-and-go scenarios or complete shutdown would, for example, disrupt grain exports from the Dakotas, Minnesota, Michigan, Ohio and Indiana; and Minnesota iron ore exports to Canada and overseas, as well as impacting Quebec aluminum imports to Oswego and Toledo for automotive and appliance manufacturing; raw material imports for steel production in Ohio and wind energy components for projects in Minnesota.

In Canada, halting navigation would severely impact Western Prairie and Ontario grain exports as well as the delivery of supplies to steel manufacturers across Ontario, gasoline and jet fuel supplies for the Greater Toronto area, and construction materials and road salt to cities in Ontario and Quebec to name just a few examples.

“Stop and go scenarios would also cause a cascade of traffic congestion in navigation channels, ports and significant safety challenges,” said Burrows. “Water flows as much as 11,500 CMS have never been done before, and it is uncertain whether ships could even safely anchor at these levels. Similarly, there is a risk that navigation buoys could drift out of position in those very high outflows, becoming unreliable or potentially obstruct the navigation channel. There has never been any study into the safety impacts of these kind of water flows on the system.”

Burrows added: “Going forward, a proper study into water levels and their causes should be done and a resiliency plan developed with all stakeholders.”

The Chamber of Marine Commerce identifies itself as a bi-national association that represents more than 130 marine industry stakeholders including major Canadian and American shippers, ports, terminals and marine service providers, as well as domestic and international ship owners, and “advocates for safe, sustainable, harmonized and competitive policy and regulation that recognizes the marine transportation system's significant advantages in the Great Lakes, St. Lawrence, Coastal and Arctic regions.”