By CRAIG FRELICH

Fears of flooding again this year have inspired St. Lawrence County Emergency Services to consider pre-positioning sand bags at strategic places around the county, just in case they’ll be needed.

But so far, weather forecasters are not predicting significant flooding in St.Lawrence County.

“After looking at the flooding last year, we have an inventory of sand bags from the state stockpile,” said Emergency Services Director Michael LeCuyere as warm spring temperatures began melting the large volume of snow that has blanketed the region in recent weeks.

LeCuyere said some sand bags might be “strategically placed” at such places as Colton, Madrid, the Potsdam area, Winthrop and Parishville -- places that in the recent past have experienced flooding during the annual spring thaw.

In April last year, the St. Regis, Oswegatchie and Grasse rivers rose above their banks in places largely due to heavy rain along with spring runoff.

In 2011, persistent flooding in late April and early May along the Raquette River bedeviled communities along its length, including Colton, Potsdam, Norwood, Norfolk and Raymondville, as fire departments were called on to help pump out flooded basements. Volunteers placed sandbags along the banks in many places and Tim Donohue, former chief of the Norwood Fire Department, called the flooding “unprecedented.”

In 2014, a bridge and part of State Rt. 420 in the Winthrop and Brasher areas were closed along with part of Rt. 420 in Massena due to flooding.

A section of County Rt. 53 just south of Brasher Falls was inundated and closed last spring. And the state Department of Transportation closed State Rt. 58 at State Rt. 184 near Pope Mills due to flooding. Along the Oswegatchie in South Edwards, around Heuvelton and nearby Black Lake, some homes were flooded.

Little Flood Threat Yet

The question now is: Are the late snows, thick river ice and recent warm temperatures a precursor for trouble along rivers in St. Lawrence County this year?

The answer appears to be no, not yet, and “if the weather pattern remains the same for the next couple of weeks we could get out of this unscathed,” according to LeCuyere.

He and the National Weather Service seem to agree that the outlook, through the end of March at least, indicates that conditions that could lead to flooding are not evident.

Several factors go into that judgment.

“The current snow pack and moisture content are not a reason for concern” about excessive spring runoff, LeCuyere said, and “the nighttime temperatures are down low enough to prevent fast melting.”

“The snow pack is near normal,” said Robert Deal, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service’s Burlington office, which covers St. Lawrence County. He confirmed that while we had a lot of snow later in the winter, we had not received a lot earlier in the season.

“And the river ice is extensive and thick,” said Deal. While ice breakup is a major cause of flooding when it breaks up and pieces jam up and restrict downstream river flow, with water backing up behind them, the threat from that scenario is not seen as likely to play out anytime soon, Deal said, again due to cold overnight temperatures predicted through the end of the month and relatively low river flows at the moment.

“It’s not forecast to get very warm through the end of March,” and that will prevent a fast melting of snow and ice and promote “a more normal slow melt,” and that gradual melting will allow for a slower runoff into river systems, Deal said.

“There is no sign of fast melting ice, no big river rise is expected, and no significant jams are expected at this time.”

Situation Could Change

What could change the situation?

“Any above-average temperatures, especially overnight, that could lead to accelerated snowmelt that could get the ice moving and lead to potential jams,” said Deal.

Temperature and rainfall are the factors he and the other weather forecasters will be watching as signs of potential trouble, “and right now we’re not expecting that.”

“We learned valuable lessons in 2011, so we keep a pretty good eye on the flows and levels,” LeCuyere said.

Last year he was watching the Raquette, which in 2011 rose beyond levels that could be controlled by managing flow through Brookfield Renewable Power’s many hydroelectric dams along the river, and also kept an eye on the Oswegatchie and the Grasse, “which don’t have the same controls, and they also have a smaller watershed than the Raquette.”

LeCuyere said he and his staff are “looking at all options. We’re in contact with the companies that have dams in the county -- Brookfield, National Grid, Algonquin – and they have emergency action plans, and we have them here so we know who to notify” if conditions change for the worse.