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Cold snowy winter likely in St. Lawrence County

Posted 1/7/17

By MATT LINDSEY Although long-term seasonal weather outlooks are not always reliable, National Weather Service meteorologists say St. Lawrence County residents should expect more snow and colder …

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Cold snowy winter likely in St. Lawrence County

Posted

By MATT LINDSEY

Although long-term seasonal weather outlooks are not always reliable, National Weather Service meteorologists say St. Lawrence County residents should expect more snow and colder temperatures this winter.

Winter, which officially began Dec. 21, has returned to its North Country form so far this year with colder weather and more snowfall compared to the beginning of the 2015-16 winter season.

Generally, from 2011-2014 the overall climate for the area became colder (on average), drier and windier, said Alexander Stewart, associate professor of geology at St. Lawrence University.

Last year, a strong El Nino resulted in a warmer and drier year in St. Lawrence County, Scott Whittier, NWS warning coordinator meteorologist said. So far this year St. Lawrence County has received nearly half of the overall snowfall compared to all of last winter.

Whittier has tracked weather in St. Lawrence County since 1993.

Recent Winters

Looking at the data, there has been a continual drop in temperature, dryness and increase in windiness from 2011-2014, Stewart said.

The 2015 season was a very warm outlier, he said.

Winter conditions deteriorated (became colder, drier and windier) from the 2011 season through the 2014 season.

This came to a head with the very cold and dry 2014 season.

This all led, abruptly in 2015, to the second warmest winter on record, Stewart said.

The mean temperature dropped during 2011-14 from 25.5 degrees in 2011 to 13.7 degrees in 2014. Temps warmed to an average of 26.6 during the 2015 winter.

Jet Streams and Almanacs

One thing Whittier says people should consider is not relying on “folklore” predictions, such as the ones from the Farmer’s Almanac.

Whittier says Farmer’s Almanac predictions don’t stand up to scrutiny by weather professionals.

“Last year they called for cold temperatures and lots of snow,” he said.

This year, the Farmer’s Almanac is again calling for lots of snow and colder temps.

Whittier says they base their predictions off of moon cycles and other factors.

“It is great folklore but making plans based on that…I would not,” he said.

El Nino is the warm phase of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and is associated with a band of warm ocean water that develops in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.

ENSO refers to the cycle of temperatures, as measured by sea surface temperature (SST), of the tropical central and eastern Pacific Ocean. El Niño is accompanied by high air pressure in the western Pacific and low air pressure in the eastern Pacific.

The cool phase of ENSO is called La Nina with SST in the eastern Pacific below average and air pressures high in the eastern and low in western Pacific.

This year La Nina is stronger than last, leading meteorologists to believe this year will see colder temps and heavier overall snowfall.

El Nino is one of several jet streams that can alter weather in the United States, including the north Atlantic oscillation. There are three types of jet streams and two phases for each, creating many possibilities in weather changes.

What to Expect?

Whittier says it’s nearly impossible to forecast accurately more than 10-14 days out.

“It is about as probable as flipping a coin heads or tails,” he said.

Predictions more than seven days out do not have any science to them because there are too many variables involved, Whittier said.

“By the time it (weather) reaches New York there are so many factors involved that can change the weather pattern,” he said.

With that said, Whittier said people in the North Country should “be ready for the long haul.”

The NWS classifies winter as Dec. 1 through the end of February. Astrology defines winter from the middle of December through the middle of March. This year it is Dec. 20 through March 20.

“As we know, winter can start in early November in the St. Lawrence Valley and run through April,” Whittier said. “Winter is long.”